Tag Archives: Week 3

NFL Betting: Week 3

What a crazy week for me. All week I’ve been at #JMPcon, then setting up some important work meetings that took me away from making my picks on Friday. Saturday was a full day, so I’m making these picks last minute. Since I still need to set my fantasy teams, there won’t be much discussion this time unfortunately. Let’s get right to the picks.

Recap:
Week 2 (all picks): 10-6
Week 1 (money picks): 4-1 for +5 units
Overall (all picks): 16-16
Overall (money picks): 5-2 for +4 units

Week 2 picks:

Tampa Bay (+7) over Atlanta
Well, that was laughable.

San Diego (+1) over Buffalo
Close one for me, I think the chargers are the better team. Being on the road going east isn’t easy, but I’m not as high on the Bills as some are.

Dallas (-2.5) over St. Louis
Not really insightful analysis, but Dallas rolls here.

Philadelphia (-6) over Washington
I need to see more from the Redskins than a win over paltry Jacksonville before I can pick them on the road against a quality team.

New York Giants (+1) over Houston
Pure gut feel here.

New Orleans (+11) over Minnesota
Normally I’d take the points, but I think New Orleans is pissed off enough to win big.

Tennessee (+7) over Cincinnati
Yes, I saw what Dallas did to the Titans. But I’m looking for a rebound. Cincy is really good though, I just think it stays close.

Cleveland (+2) over Baltimore
Supposedly Flacco has been ill some of the week limiting his prep work. And Cleveland hasn’t been all that bad. I’ll take points at home.

Green Bay (+1) over Detroit
This is a real money play. I like the Packers getting a point. Their defense will need to step up though.

Indianapolis (-7) over Jacksonville
Indy has lost two close games, to two high powered offenses. The Jags are not that.

Oakland (+14.5) over New England
I wouldn’t normally look at prior years records, but fading New England as a double digit favorite at home has been profitable over the years (15-6 recently). I don’t see this New England team as a whole lot different, even worse probably, which is why I’m allowing this comparison to stand. Tom Brady isn’t the Tom Brady of old either.

San Francisco (-3) over Arizona
Drew Stanton beat the Giants. He won’t beat the 49ers.

Seattle (-5.5) over Denver
This should be a lot closer than the super bowl, even with Seattle’s home field. But to me, Seattle at home at this line is something you just don’t go against.

Kansas City (+4) over Miami
Kansas City isn’t terrible. They aren’t great, but not terrible. I’ll ride them as a dog one more time.

Carolina (-3) over Pittsburgh
This is a real money play for me. For me, Carolina is the better team at a neutral site. I’ll take ’em -3 at home.

Chicago (+3) over New York Jets
Definitely rolling with the points here.

Real Money Bets:
San Diego (+1) over Buffalo – 1 unit
Green Bay (+1) over Detroit – 1 unit
Dallas (-2.5) over St. Louis – 2 units
Carolina (-3) over Pittsburgh – 1 unit
Chicago (+3) over New York Jets – 1 unit