Week 4 was a disaster, plain and simple. I went underdog heavy, and it came back to bite me. The poor week puts me at nearly 50/50 for the season. However, on a bright note, as posted on my facebook page like I do every week prior to the Thursday night games, I picked this Thursday’s Packers/Vikings game perfectly, and put a full 5 units on it! Big early plus to start the week.
Week 4 (all picks): 5-8
Week 4 (money picks): 2-5 for -3 units
Overall (all picks): 29-30-2 (49.2%)
Overall (money picks): 10-9 for +3 units (52.6%)
Week 5 picks:
Green Bay (-9) over Minnesota
Again, as posted on my facebook page, I put a full 5 units on this and hit! I even said I’d take the Packers up to -14…big win!
Carolina (-3) over Chicago
This line is tough, so no real money on it, but I’ll take Carolina at home against a Jekyll/Hyde Bears team.
Tennessee (-1) over Cleveland
I actually like the Titans for a bounce back game. Delanie Walker might have a field day here.
Philadelphia (-7) over St. Louis
I actually see some upset potential here, as this reminds me of a matchup last year between Minnesota and Philly where the Vikings stomped the Eagles led by Matt Cassel. I think Austin Davis has a nice fantasy day, and this game could come down to the wire. Yet I think the Eagles are just too much in the end.
Atlanta (+4) over New York Giants
I actually don’t like Atlanta on the road (Matt Ryan outdoors has an awful record), but I’ll bet it here as they are getting over a field goal against inconsistent Eli.
Tampa Bay (+11) over New Orleans
I don’t think Tampa Bay is any good, but they’ve looked better under Glennon. I think they’ll put some points on an awful New Orleans defense to keep this within single digits.
Houston (+6) over Dallas
I think Dallas is over-rated, and is being backed heavily by the public here. A nice one to fade.
Buffalo (+7.5) over Detroit
If Detroit were -6.5 I’d take them, but at -7.5 I have to take Buffalo here. We’ll see how Orton does, but I don’t see him as a downgrade whatsoever from Manuel.
Baltimore (+3.5) over Indianapolis
This game is a real money pass for me, but I’ll pick the Ravens to run the ball and keep Luck off the field.
Jacksonville (+7) over Pittsburgh
I think the Jaguars keep dropping in the public eye. I’ve seen potential from them, and they should cover here for once.
Arizona (+7.5) over Denver
Are we really getting 7.5 points for the 3-0 Cardinals? Take it and run.
San Francisco (-6) over Kansas City
San Francisco is strong at covering the TE position, and thus shouldn’t have much trouble stopping the Chiefs in the air. If they contain Charles, they win comfortably.
New York Jets (+7) over San Diego
Yes I’ll take the Jets again…doesn’t feel good though. Geno’s going to do it one day. He’s been close the last two weeks to getting the cover thanks to his defense keeping high scoring offenses relatively in check.
New England (+1.5) over Cincinnati
Yes, the Patriots aren’t the same team as they have been. But can I really really go against Brady and Belichick getting points as an underdog at home?
Seattle (-7.5) over Washington
I can’t see Cousins doing much against this defense. Just go back to the playoff game his rookie year where he couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against this D, of which many players still remain from that team.
Real Money Bets:
Green Bay (-9) over Minnesota – 5 units
Tennessee (-1) over Cleveland – 1 unit
Atlanta (+4) over New York Giants – 1 unit
Houston (+6) over Dallas – 1 unit
Buffalo (+7.5) over Detroit – 1 unit
Arizona (+7.5) over Denver – 1 unit
New England (+1.5) over Cincinnati – 1 unit